Reckon
A decision journal for iPhone and iPad. Record what you predict and how sure you are, then mark what actually happened. After a few dozen calls it shows your calibration: whether the calls you made at 70% come in about 70% of the time. One-time purchase, iCloud sync, no account.
Image 1 of 4: Log the call while it's still uncertain.
Log the call while it's still uncertain.
You log the call while it's still uncertain: the prediction, a line of reasoning, and one number for how sure you are.
As things change, a thirty-second check-in nudges that confidence up or down, and every check-in stays on the record.
When it's over you mark what actually happened and how satisfied you are with the call, your original prediction sitting right there so hindsight can't quietly rewrite it.
Do that a few dozen times and the reliability diagram has enough to work with. It plots what you said against what happened, so you can see where your confidence runs hot or cold.
Guides
Making better decisions
Frameworks for choosing, and the record that tells you afterwards whether the choosing worked: writing down what you expect before the outcome exists, so you can find out later whether you called it.
8 guides