A decision journal for iPhone and iPad: write what you predict and how sure you are, mark what happened, see your calibration. One-time, no account. After a few dozen calls it shows whether the ones you made at 70% come in about 70% of the time. Syncs over iCloud, no subscription.
Image 1 of 4: Log the call while it's still uncertain.
Log the call while it's still uncertain.
You log the call while it's still uncertain: the prediction, a line of reasoning, and one number for how sure you are.
A 30-second check-in nudges that confidence up or down as things change, and every one of them stays on the record.
When it's over you mark what actually happened and how satisfied you are with the call, your original prediction sitting right there so hindsight can't quietly rewrite it.
Do that a few dozen times and the reliability diagram has enough to work with. It plots what you said against what happened, so you can see where you run over-confident and where you run under.
Frameworks for choosing, and the decision journal that tells you afterwards whether the choosing worked: write down what you expect before the outcome exists.
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FAQ
A decision journal for iPhone and iPad. You record what you predict and how confident you are, check in as things change, and resolve each call when the outcome lands. Once you have a few dozen resolved calls, it can tell you how well-calibrated you are.
A notes app stores what you wrote. Reckon stores what you predicted, with a confidence number, and the outcome, so it can do math your notes can't: compare your stated confidence to how often you're right, and show where you're systematically over- or under-confident.
Calibration is how well your confidence matches reality: say 70% and be right about 70% of the time, and you're calibrated. You can't tell where you stand without a record. Reckon builds that record from your own decisions and reads the gap back to you.
No account, no backend. Everything lives on your device and syncs across iPhone and iPad over your own iCloud. There is no server on the other end to upload anything to.
One-time purchase, no subscription. Buy it once on the App Store and own it, iCloud sync included.
A few dozen resolved calls before the reliability diagram says much. The per-domain breakdown appears once 15 calls have resolved with at least 3 in a domain.
iPhone and iPad today. A Mac version is in progress and will join the same purchase when it ships.
